Sandbags, Strategy, and the Storm Ahead: Why the Third Sector Must Hold the Line

Let me be clear: if you’re in leadership right now—whether in finance, tech, pharma, government, or the not-for-profit space—this is your moment. Not your moment to panic. Your moment to build. And for those of us in the charity sector, where the stakes are actual lives, this isn’t about quarterly margins. It’s about survival. It’s about scale. And it’s about courage.

A Global Squeeze with Local Impact

From Oakland to Dhaka, the third sector is being hit by a pincer movement: skyrocketing demand on one side, and collapsing funding on the other. The Financial Times recently reported that USAID has terminated nearly 10,000 grants, devastating programs fighting HIV/AIDS and hunger. The consequences? Millions more infections. Millions more deaths. Tsunami-level need.

Ireland isn’t insulated. Irish NGOs rely heavily on USAID funding. These cuts have a downstream effect that ripples straight into communities across Africa, the Middle East, and beyond—places where Irish NGOs have been lifelines. And as needs abroad intensify, so too does pressure at home. The expectation to do more with less is no longer a budgetary quirk. It’s a systemic flaw.

Strategic Reframing: Margaret Heffernan and the Power of Uncertainty

Margaret Heffernan—author, entrepreneur, and one of the clearest voices on complexity—reminds us that uncertainty is not a bug in the system. It is the system. Her call for "strategic reframing" isn’t just smart—it’s survival. Strategic reframing isn’t about forecasting better. It’s about building organisations that are more curious, more adaptive, and more human.

She’s right. We’re not playing chess. We’re playing jazz. Improvisation, not optimisation, is what will define the winners in this age of cascading uncertainty.

COVID, Creativity, and Black Swans

Remember COVID? Of course you do. But it’s not just a public health memory—it was a Black Swan event, a term popularised by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to describe rare, unpredictable events with massive impact. We all got hit. Some sectors responded with innovation. Others froze.

Andy Haldane, former Chief Economist at the Bank of England, argued that creativity wasn’t some luxury good for the boom times—it was core infrastructure. He championed it as the bedrock of resilience. And if you’re leading a charity—or any purpose-led organisation—this is your creativity moment. Your sandbag moment. The time to prepare for the flood before it arrives.

Charities: Underfunded, Overextended, and Still Standing

In Ireland, we pride ourselves on having one of the most trusted charity sectors in the world. But that trust is under pressure. As government supports plateau and international aid shrinks, we're expected to scale up, reach farther, and serve more—often with fewer people and fewer resources.

Just when we need more capacity, many are slashing staff, especially in fundraising. That’s like throwing your compass overboard during a storm. Now is not the time to downsize. Now is the time to double down.

This Is Leadership—And It’s Not Optional

To the leaders reading this: you don’t get to sit this one out. Your choices now will define whether your organisation becomes part of the wave or helps hold the line. Strategic reframing means embracing complexity, not simplifying it. It means listening harder. Investing in your people. And yes, it means fundraising—not just as a function, but as a force.

The tsunami of need is coming, but so too is the opportunity to respond with intelligence, agility, and heart. The third sector doesn’t need heroes. It needs leaders who are ready to do the hard thing, not just the easy thing—leaders who aren’t afraid to pick up a sandbag.

Are you ready to roll up your sleeves, take some risks, and meet this moment with everything you’ve got?

Scott Kelley
COO
Charities Institute Ireland
scott@charitiesinstitute.ie